What If the Soviet Union Invaded Germany First During World War II?

The Soviet Union’s Secret Invasion Plans

When German forces surged across the Soviet frontier in June 1941, the Red Army faced near annihilation. Yet, against all odds, they not only repelled the German invasion but eventually stormed Berlin, securing victory. But what if things had played out differently? What if the Soviets had been secretly planning their own offensive, set for early July 1941? How would the tides of World War II have shifted, and would it have actually been a good thing?

To understand this alternate history scenario, we need to review the preparations the Soviet Union made and whether their planned invasion, codenamed Operation Groza (or “Thunderstorm”), was truly a realistic option.

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The Dismantling of the Soviet Security Zone

One of the biggest questions that remains is how the Soviets’ security zone along their border was dismantled just weeks before the war started. The thinking of the time was that defenders should have a security zone, typically around 50 km of territory from the border, devoid of any major military equipment like depots and stores, smaller bridges, weaker roads, and mobile light infantry units. Behind that was supposed to be a complex defense network of fortified bunkers, gun emplacements, railway lines, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure needed to provide a robust defense.

In the years before Operation Barbarossa, the German invasion of the USSR, the Soviets had been diligently building their security zone and defense network, colloquially called the “Stalin Line” at the frontier. However, in the several months leading up to the war, the Soviets actually had dismantled most of this defensive infrastructure.

• The Soviet security zone was left bare of almost anything useful, with huge mine belts laid to destroy enemy armor and funnel German troops into ambushes.
• Russian sappers had rigged bridges for demolition, and railway troops were prepared to destroy track and rolling stock.
• The Soviets had also created an extensive network of professional partisans whose jobs it was to harass and delay advancing forces with sniper attacks, ambushes, and cutting off communication and supplies.
• The Stalin Line itself was an impressive array of mutually supporting machine guns, artillery, and trench emplacements supported by thousands of tanks, planes, and reserve troops that could be swiftly moved to crisis areas of the front.

So why was the German Blitzkrieg not ground to a halt at the border? One of the best arguments is that dismantling these defensive measures, some of which had taken over 10 years to build, would get in the way of advancing armies if the Soviets had been planning to attack. The security zone would have been in their rear and unnecessary. Additionally, the weapons and supplies that comprised these defensive networks would be needed in an assault on Eastern Europe.

The Timing of the Dismantling

The timing of these events is also quite odd. From May to September 1939, the Red Army fought a decisive battle against the Japanese in Mongolia in the aftermath of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol, where Soviet forces under future Marshal Zhukov won a stunning victory in the first-ever combined arms battle. Stalin appointed Zhukov to lead his efforts in fortifying the Soviet frontier, and what he did does not lend itself to thinking it was defensive measures.

In November 1939, the Soviets invaded Finland in what became known as the Winter War. During this conflict, the Finnish security zone, which was about 40 to 60 km, held up the Red Army for 25 days and was a primary factor in the huge casualties they suffered. By the summer of 1941, the Soviets knew the importance of a robust security zone. If Stalin truly did not want war because his army was not ready, as many historians have claimed, why then would he purposely destroy the one thing that could buy his military time in the event of an attack?

Zhukov’s Preparations

When Zhukov took over preparations for the border areas, he did the opposite of planning for defense. In Ukraine and Belarus, he found that the roads were in disrepair, bridges could not support tanks or artillery, and there were not enough large air bases. One’s first instinct might be to say this was bad, as these conditions were all inside the security zone where the Soviets would want the invaders to face poor infrastructure conditions. Instead, Zhukov did the opposite:

• He summoned railway troops to build more and more tracks that ran east to west.
• He built dozens of air bases all within 10 to 30 km of the border.
• He built larger bridges that could support heavy tanks and repaired roads for rapid movement.

According to leading historian and former Soviet intelligence officer Viktor Suvorov, these preparations were because of lessons learned by Zhukov during the Battle of Khalkhin Gol. During this battle, the distances supplies and materials had to travel were immense, with some equipment arriving from more than 8,000 km away. Combined with poor roads and almost zero infrastructure in the last several hundred kilometers of the supply chain, Soviet forces heavily relied on trucks and horse carts to get supplies, equipment, and troops to the front.

Stalin did not want to repeat this mistake and had Zhukov nearly double the number of railways, bridges, roadways, and air bases in the area. The purpose of all of this? None other than transporting large armies from east to west, which is exactly what Soviet planners were doing in the several months leading up to the war.

The Soviet Forces Amassed on the Border

By June 22nd, the Red Army had assembled a massive force on its frontier – over 2.9 million personnel, including 2.7 million Red Army soldiers, 215,000 sailors, and 153,000 NKVD security troops. These forces were well-armed, with over 57,000 artillery pieces and mortars, over 11,000 serviceable tanks, and almost 7,600 working aircraft.

However, all of these troops were dangerously exposed along the front. Major bridges across rivers like the Bug formed natural defense barriers, but the explosives that had previously rigged these for demolition were removed on the eve of battle. Some historians suggest this was just a measure of goodwill between Stalin and Hitler, but people like Suvorov suggest it was to ensure the bridges were safe to cross for an attack, supported by the large numbers of pontoon bridges, railway ties, and rolling stock pre-positioned near major bridges on the Soviet side.

The Soviet War Games and Plans for Invasion

The Soviets carried out two high-level war games in Moscow between December 31, 1940, and January 11, 1941, attended by some of the absolute cream of the crop in the Red Army at the time – more than 50 generals, admirals, and staff officers. These games were kept highly secret, with each officer transported in their own plane or car from their duty stations.

In the first game, the parameters were that Germany invaded first on July 15, 1941, and got 70 km inside the USSR before being thrown back. The Soviets then launched a counterattack on August 1, 1941. While it’s not agreed upon or clear how the Soviets pushed the Germans back to the border, what mattered was that the counterattack during the game led to a decisive victory over the Germans, albeit after very heavy casualties.

In the second war game, the Soviets attacked first, with General Zhukov leading the Soviet forces. This time, the main effort was made in the south towards Romania. During this war game, the Red Army easily pushed aside scattered German and Romanian formations due to the lack of natural obstacles and the superior equipment compared to what existed in Romania at the time. After taking over Romania, Zhukov’s armies could advance into Central Europe toward Budapest.

The reason Romania was considered such a strategic target was the vast quantity of easily extractable oil known as the Ploesti oil fields. On average, the Ploesti oil fields provided about a third of all Axis oil needs until Romania left the Axis side in 1944. Taking over Romania would be a strategic failure for Hitler that would have very real impacts on the German military’s battlefield performance.

The Proposed Timing of the Soviet Invasion

As for determining when the Soviet military was alleged to have been preparing to go on the offensive, the date of Sunday, July 6th, is thrown around a lot. The reason for this, besides testimony from several Soviet generals, is grounded in fact. By July 10th, the redeployment of more than 200,000 Soviet troops from five interior military districts would have been completed, and huge quantities of material, including tanks and ammunition, would have reached the front line in time for dispersion to ground troops.

According to Suvorov, being a staunch atheist, Stalin always liked to conduct big operations on Sunday when he figured he would catch people off guard. This, combined with the math that Soviet forces would have been ready by July 10th, which was just 5 days before the expected German invasion of July 15th in the war games, suggests the Soviets would have been planning to strike by then.

However, there is a problem with this date, as developments on the frontier would have forced Stalin to take action sooner. In the months leading up to the German invasion, German aircraft and ships violated Soviet airspace and waters hundreds of times, with some reconnaissance flights penetrating more than 200 km into Soviet territory before being forced back. In addition, increasing numbers of attempted German agents were caught at the border in the weeks leading up to the invasion, with no fewer than 36 German agents killed by Soviet border guards.

Soviet intelligence also received damning warnings from both confidential sources inside the German military and Winston Churchill himself that a German attack was imminent. While the real-life Stalin did not believe these reports, let’s assume for the sake of argument that he believed these reports and decided to strike when it became clear Germany was moving the bulk of its Panzer armies to the front.

The State of the German Army

From February 1941 to June 1941, the German military moved more than 100 divisions eastward. By May 21st, the Germans had moved 42 infantry and 1 armored division to the frontier. Between May 22nd and June 10th, the Germans moved a staggering 20 infantry, 14 armored, 13 mechanized, and 9 security divisions to the front. On June 10th, the infantry divisions began marching toward the Soviet border, and on June 18th, the armored formations began moving as well.

All told, the Axis army possessed over 3.3 million soldiers at the front, 3,277 planes, 4,445 tanks, 3,769 artillery pieces, and more than 36,000 anti-tank guns and mortars. These troops were organized into three Army Groups called North, Center, and South, with a combined total of 121 German divisions, 15 Italian divisions, 2 Romanian divisions, 16 Finnish divisions, and half of one Slovak division.

With such a huge number of forces stacked against him, the Soviets would have faced near parity in manpower at the front. However, if Stalin gave the order, the Politburo would likely have waited until all the German forces were moving toward the border to catch the enemy off guard. This clear hostile intent would have signaled it was time to act, and the Soviets could have launched their own attack probably a week before the Germans as the mass infantry began moving toward the border.

The Chaotic First Day of the Soviet Invasion

In the early morning hours of Sunday, June 15th, 1941, Stalin orders his army to conduct the unthinkable and begin Operation Thunderstorm. The attack starts with a massive artillery barrage across the front, from the Leningrad district to Odessa on the Black Sea, as tens of thousands of guns open fire in a crescendo never before seen in the annals of warfare.

As this is going on, thousands of Red Army bombers with fighter escorts take off from their bases across the Western Military District. Though they encounter some scattered anti-aircraft fire from sleepy gunners, they begin to unleash a hail of bombs onto German airfields that had been only recently finished and with little protection against attack. While many German planes try to take off, most are shot to pieces before they even have a chance to taxi on the runways.

Despite this surprise attack, German planes from further afield in Poland and Hungary begin taking off to join in what would become the largest aerial battle in human history. As the Red Army planes and artillery continue their attacks, Soviet infantry, mentally prepared for the massive battle that was about to take place, sit and listen as political commissars spout speeches about the need to kill fascism once and for all.

The Soviet Partisan and Airborne Assault

While the bombardment is ongoing, the Red Army has already started sending its professional cadre of partisans across the border. These partisans, who have been training for years, begin assembling at their designated muster locations and passing out weapons, ammunition, radios, explosives, and money. Once equipped, squads of partisans begin marching to village squares, where they will ride in trucks to the border to form platoons and companies with specific objectives – blowing up depots, barracks, and radio towers across the Eastern Front.

In addition to the partisans, the Soviets had made a huge commitment to training a large number of paratroopers and glider infantry as part of an effort to raise a 1 million-man paratrooper army. By the spring of 1941, the Red Army had trained enough men to establish five Airborne Corps, which was 10 divisions worth of airborne infantry – more than double the Germans had at the time. These five Airborne Corps are preparing to board their aircraft, ready for what would become the largest air assault in the history of warfare.

The Soviet Submarine Offensive

Across ports all across the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, dozens of Soviet submarines receive orders to get underway. Their orders are simple – conduct unrestricted submarine warfare. These submarines, of which Stalin has built dozens over the past decade, are to sink any military or merchant vessel that could aid the German war effort and disrupt any efforts by the Germans to conduct an amphibious landing in the Baltics to keep the Soviet rear areas secure.

The Battles Across the Fronts

As the Soviet assault begins, the fighting is fierce across the various fronts:

The Southwestern Front

In the south, the Soviet 9th Army streams across the Romanian border, facing off against the Germans and Romanians who have mustered 1.2 million men, 16,800 guns and mortars, 1,144 tanks, and 1,829 planes. The Soviets have the 6th Shock Army and 18th Mountain Army, containing a combined 1.4 million men, 26,580 guns, 8,069 tanks, and 4,696 planes.

The disparity in tanks and the quality of the troops here will be crucial. With a nearly 7-to-1 advantage in tanks, the Soviets are actually more mechanized than their German and Romanian enemies. While the majority of the Soviet tank forces are of the BT class of tanks, they are still just as powerful and in some regards better than their German Panzer I and II counterparts. However, the Germans also have hundreds of Panzer III and IV tanks, which can easily take on the BT tanks head-on.

The Soviets do have a secret weapon – the brand-new T-34 medium tanks and KV-1 and KV-2 heavy tanks. Contrary to popular belief, the Soviet tank force is capable and much larger than the German commanders had expected. In fact, Hitler even remarked later that had he known the Soviets had as many tanks as they did, he would have invaded in the first place.

As these heavy tanks rumble into battle, German tankers are stunned. The only defense German and Romanian troops have is preparing carefully orchestrated ambushes that blast these tanks point-blank with artillery fire, but they don’t get much of an opportunity since they are currently being outflanked.

In the north, the Carpathian Mountains stretch across Romania, Slovakia, Southern Poland, and Central Europe. Over the past several months, the Soviets have secretly moved the 18th Mountain Army into position here. This army, comprised almost entirely of Armenians, Azeris, Georgians, and Chechens from the Caucasus Mountains, brushes away light Romanian resistance as it begins its assault into the Carpathians. With its left flank exposed, the Army Group South must decide whether to fall back or stay put and risk being encircled.

In Crimea, the 9th Special Rifle Corps has embarked transport ships from the Black Sea Fleet, their destination the Romanian port of Constanta. As the Black Sea Fleet steams toward the Romanian coast, the 62 ships of the Danube naval flotilla are wreaking havoc among German and Romanian positions and threatening to cut off the line of retreat for those units near the border.

The Northwestern Front

On the Northwestern Front, the Soviet 8th and 11th Armies, numbering some 23 divisions, are primarily assigned a defensive role to secure the coastlines of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to repel any seaborne invasion attempt and secure the borders to repulse inevitable German counterattacks. However, they are also assigned limited offensive operations to seize the northeastern part of Poland, including Suwałki and Rajgród villages, to shorten the front line and secure the right flank of the Western Front.

The Western Front

The Western Front, comprised of the 3rd, 4th, 10th, and 13th Armies numbering some 42 divisions, has a less clear task than the Northwestern Front. While the 13th Army is to secure the border area around Minsk, the 3rd, 10th, and 4th Armies are to begin a general advance into East Prussia. However, due to the strength of the German defenses in the area, they are not actually